Saturday, February 27, 2016

"Peak Stupidity" - Where We Go From Here


...The stock market is simply an asset with some intrinsic value based on an expectation of future free cash flows to equity holders.  Those cash flows are generated from revenues less costs of the underlying companies that make up the market.

...And so what should we expect from here?

Well the fundamental charts above suggest we have significantly overvalued growth expectations and historically those over-inflated expectations can drop very sharply back in line with actual growth.  So from a fundamentals perspective we should expect a significant drop in overall valuations (i.e. market cap).

And from a technical perspective, if we are in fact following the previous bubble cycle pattern (which we seem to be), we should expect a nice bounce in price level from the recent lows (to perhaps somewhere between 2000 – 2030 [S&P]) accompanied by relative calm before an explosion of volatility and a market price plunge that sends us into the next crisis sometime around May (give or take).