Wednesday, January 28, 2015

We are living in a World run by money-printing central-planners

I have said that we won't see a Market Crash until [almost immediately] after the 2016 US Presidential Election (read this and this).

I want to give you my layman's view of what's happening in the World right now and what I am doing to protect myself, financially.

After the 2008 Financial Crisis, Bernanke started the QEs to save the world.

If I recall correctly, the Balance Sheet of the Fed has expanded from US$800 Billion (with a B) pre-2008 Crisis to about US$4 Trillion (with a T) today. To solve what is essentially a debt problem, the ONLY solution that the Fed has, is to create MORE debts!

By printing more money, the Fed had hoped that it could create the Wealth Effect, i.e. to inflate Financial Assets, so that people would feel wealthy and spend money to consume, thereby creating a demand for goods and services which would hopefully lead to an economic recovery. And, with higher economic growth, the US Treasury should be able to receive more income from Taxes and pay down the Federal debts. And, the World would become a wonderful place once more!

The problem is, there is INEQUALITY in the creation and distribution of wealth and the divide between the Rich and the Poor began to widen. The Rich becomes richer and the Poor just can't cope with the rising prices of housing and food, for example.

The wages of the poor can't rise fast enough to catch up with the rising Cost of Living and that's why we have Arab Spring, Occupy Wallstreet and the "99% versus the 1%".

We are now seeing the working class around the world demanding a higher Minimum Wage. But, we will NEVER see wages for the 99% rise fast enough for a decent living.

Why?

Well...that's how the Rich controls the Poor. The Poor will become, or has become, the slaves of the Rich. If the Wealth Effect affects EVERYONE, whether one is Rich or Poor, POSITIVELY and EQUALLY, then, what difference does it (QE or money printing) make?

To make ends meet, the Poor will then have to rely on handouts from their governments. But, these governments, i.e. the Politicians, are controlled by the Rich!

That's how the game is played. The Rich controls the "System".

There are still a lot of things that I can talk about, but I would sound long-winded. So, let's just concentrate on how I protect myself financially.

I have NEVER experienced Hyperinflation, but, learning from history, the massive amount of money printing will lead to higher inflation and possibly Hyperinflation.

If you do a search on the net, there are basically a few ways to protect ourselves against Inflation/Hyperinflation,

1. Buy a Strong(er) Currency;
2. Buy Precious Metals like Gold and Silver;
3. Buy other Hard Assets like land and real estate;
4. Borrow more money.

With regards to buying a Strong(er) Currency, unless you are a sophisticated-enough investor, I don't think this is for the layman.

Gold and Silver yield no income. Hence, in my opinion, unless you are Uber Rich, I also don't think this route is for everybody.

On buying other Hard Assets, I think this is what most people can do.

If you don't have enough money to buy acres and acres of land, or properties worth millions of dollars, I suggest that you buy the stocks of those companies that own these assets, like a plantation company or a property company. And, you would want to own the stocks of companies that are well-established and paying good dividends; in this regard, I would avoid companies that have lost money, even for 1 quarter (I have ALWAYS told people that a company can make less money, but it should NOT incur any loss at all!!!).

And, as most people aren't able to time the market, I would suggest one to carry out his or her investment using the Dollar Cost Averaging method.

If more fiat money is being printed, the 'value' of the fiat money will naturally be lower simply because of the increased Supply (of fiat money). Hence, it makes sense to borrow more as the dividend income one receives from investing in a stock, for example, will rise as the company charges more for its goods and services, to catch up with inflation, while the amount of debt remains constant. However, I also won't recommend anyone to borrow more money unless he or she is a sophisticated-enough investor; debt is a double-edged sword, it will make you or break you!!!

I am currently invested in 1 Food Company (a good hedge against inflation) and 1 Agricultural Company (hard assets). These companies have good earning track records and are paying dividends consistently.

I am also invested in 1 Real Estate Company with exposure to China (hard asset and strong[er] currency). I believe China is a Growth Engine for the World and its currency should become stronger over time.

Just to share a thought.

p.s. I have also borrowed some money, but, my debt is generating POSITIVE income for me, i.e., after deducting the interest expense, I still make money (while I sit and do nothing).