Wednesday, September 17, 2014

So, the Fed is going to raise rates. Does it matter?

The Fed will unwind, first by tapering, then by raising the Fed Funds Rates.

The Fed has been criticized for expanding its Balance Sheet, too fast and too big, without an Exit Strategy.

The BOJ, the ECB and the PBOC are still in the Loose Money Mode and this gives the Fed a chance to unwind its Balance Sheet. The Fed HAS TO unwind its Balance Sheet for fear of the USD losing the Reserve Currency Status.

And, since the BOJ, the ECB and the PBOC are still providing liquidity to the markets, we won't see a Market Crash, in my opinion, should the Fed starts to raise the Fed Funds Rates.

My view is that the party will continue until the 2016 US Presidential Election.

At this time, even if the Fed wishes to engineer a Market Crash, so that the whole World would still see the USD as a Safe Haven, it is highly unlikely to succeed.

p.s. Intermittent market corrections, of 5 to 10%, are to be expected, however.