Hoosier Dome

Last Post

2012-01-25T19:32:00.001+08:00

I am not going to write anymore.

Thanks for visiting this blog.

Hoosier's Random Thought #75

2012-01-23T19:02:00.000+08:00

EUR/USD 1-minute chart updated till January 23, 2012 at about 6:55pm Singapore time.

There is a little bit of Short Squeeze on the EUR/USD pair.EUR/USD is now trading around 1.298 as I am writing right now.

===================================================================
*** Just want to place on record...

Related post on January 21, 2012.

The EUR/USD pair broke above the 1.32 level on January 27, 2012 during NY trading hours.

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till January 27, 2012.

Here's A Huge Sign That The European Financial Crisis Is Ending

2012-01-23T17:49:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: I personally don't think that the European Debt Crisis is ending; it would take spending cuts and economic growth to resolve the debt problems. However, since the Money Market Funds are active again, the stress on the financial system have been lessened.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) #28

2012-01-21T16:18:00.000+08:00

DJIA Daily chart updated till January 20, 2012.

Dear Dr T,

As I have suspected (see previous post), the Dow continues to climb and it closed at 12,720 yesterday, January 20, 2012. I am glad that I cut loss around the 12,300 level.

I have said jokingly to someone about 1 or 2 weeks ago that we may see the Dow trading around 12,800 and yesterday, the Dow reached the 12,700 level. I did not look at the chart of the Dow when I commented that the index may hit the 12,800 level, it was purely based on my gut feelings. I have developed my gut feelings through years of experience...all the knowledge that I possessed, and the experience I gained from trading in the markets, have become part of me. I truly believe that I have reliable gut feelings.

I have indicated the most recent high of 12,876 on the chart. The MACD and the Stochastic are at the top and it looks ripe to Short the Dow again.

But, I am still having Long positions on EUR/USD and I will wait until the EUR/USD hit the 1.32 level before I start Shorting the Dow (see previous post).

Hope you can see that I have been VERY PATIENT.

Yours truly,
Hoosier

EUR Shorts Hit New Record

2012-01-21T15:08:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: I personally think that EUR/USD will snap back to the 1.32 level (link). I am LONG on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till January 21, 2012.

US$ is worst than Euro in my personal opinion. And, if the Fed were to do another QE (or just a market expectation of another QE), as has been speculated by that Liesman guy (Steve Liesman from CNBC), we will see a correction on the Dollar Index (DXY). The US Debt Ceiling issue is US$ negative too (Obama is asking the congress to raise the Debt Ceiling by 1.2 Trillion again).

DXY Daily chart updated till January 21, 2012.

Related Article: Dollar Bull Trend Definitely Over and How This Might Impact Equities

...A weaker Dollar along with weaker equity prices may be the new dynamic.

Jamie's Fish Suppers

2012-01-20T10:20:00.002+08:00

Saw this on TV last night. I am an Outstanding cook...I will try to cook some of the dishes.

Fed's Latest Easing Could Cost $1 Trillion: Economists

2012-01-20T10:02:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: And, people still think that the US$ is a 'safe haven'?

Hoosier's Random Thought #74

2012-01-19T17:43:00.001+08:00

EUR/USD 1-minute chart updated till January 19, 2012 at about 5:39pm.

An update on this and this.

We have a little bit of 'Short Squeeze' passed the 1.2880 level.

Kodak files for bankruptcy, secures $950 million lifeline

2012-01-19T16:00:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: That 'Kodak Moment' is gone...forever...

I still can remember the Kodak commercial using Paul Anka's song - Times Of Your Life...

Hoosier's Random Thought #73

2012-01-19T12:26:00.002+08:00

An update on previous post.

It was reported on ForexLive that there is a barrier at 1.2880 on EUR/USD.

Hoosier's Random Thought #72

2012-01-19T11:04:00.001+08:00

This piece of article was published on January 6, 2012 on the ZeroHedge,

Goldman's Stolper Speaks, Sees EUR Downside To 1.20: Time To Go All In

I didn't post it because I am LONG on EUR/USD and I didn't want to appear to be bias.

Since that piece of article was published, EUR/USD went lower to around 1.262 but it has been moving up since then and EUR/USD is now trading around 1.286 as I am writing right now.

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till January 19, 2012 at about 10:51am.

Today, ZeroHedge published another article predicting a big-time 'Short Squeeze' if EUR/USD were to break above a pivotal level at 1.2880. This is entirely possible for I also share the same view that 'smart money' are unloading stocks in the current 'melt-up' with the S&P trading above 1,300.

Goldman Confirms Smart Money Is Now Offloading To Retail; Sees 1.2880 As A EURUSD Short Covering Threshold

Last night, I also saw on Bloomberg with a market commentator saying that a 'Short Squeeze' could occur and possibly bring EUR/USD to above the 1.34 level. I am going to start selling once EUR/USD is above the 1.32 level, and I will also turn my attention to the Dow and start to Short the index as I have indicated earlier.

A 'Short Squeeze' on the EUR/USD is very likely to occur because Shorting the EUR/USD is now a one-sided bet with an outstanding Short position of over 155,000 contracts outstanding as indicated by the chart from Bloomberg.

World Bank Cuts Global Growth Outlook

2012-01-18T10:37:00.002+08:00

Greece Nears Deal With Private Creditors: CEO

2012-01-18T10:35:00.001+08:00

Yahoo Co-Founder Jerry Yang Resigns From Struggling Firm

2012-01-18T10:06:00.003+08:00

Hoosier's note: It still feels like yesterday when I first learnt about 'Internet'.

At the beginning, there was only this thing called the BBS (Bulletin Board System). I first used BBS at Indiana University when I was in the Honors Program studying MBA courses. It was real cool to be a Honors student for I get to study MBA courses as an Undergraduate and at a much lower cost. I also get to use this thing called 'email' and I would check if my Professors or my fellow MBA students have left any messages for me and I would communicate with them using 'emails' (and that was in the 80s)

A cousin of mine was at the fore-front of this BBS technology and he had set up a company running BBS. As a young man at that time, I was eager to learn about this thing called the 'Internet' which had just started to evolve from BBS. I still can remember when my cousin opened his laptop and showed me this thing called the 'Browser'--I believe it was Netscape.

My cousin further explained to me that there was this young man called Jerry Yang who had just started a company called Yahoo and Bill Gates saw him as a threat to Microsoft. It was a real exciting thing at that time and everyone, and I mean E-V-E-R-Y-O-N-E, wants to get a hand on this thing called the 'Internet'. But, as we all know, everything that is too good to be true will come to an end and we saw the Dot-Com Bubble burst.

It's sad to see Jerry Yang leaving Yahoo, but I believe he will do something else and with greater success. I wish Jerry Yang the best.

Like I said, if feels like yesterday when I first came to learn about Yahooooooooooooooooooooo!

ZeroHedge - A Useful Fiction: Everybody Loves A Melt-Up Stock Market

2012-01-17T10:07:00.001+08:00

...As noted here many times in 2011, "the only trade that matters" is the DXY dollar index, as stocks have long been on a see-saw with the dollar: when the dollar rises, stocks decline, and vice versa. Yet for the past three weeks, stocks have risen along with the the dollar.

***Hoosier's note: I have also noticed this change in the relationship between stocks and the US$ - see my previous posting here.

...At least one trader sees a similarity to the 2008 market just before it melted down in a big way. Anyone who looks at charts will find these compelling, or at least "food for thought."

***Hoosier's note: I also share the same thought on this. I tried to recall what had happened in 2008 - see my previous posting here.

S&P Downgrades Euro Zone Rescue Fund by One Notch

2012-01-17T09:48:00.001+08:00

Euro Rescue Fund Will Have to Be Modified: S&P

2012-01-16T17:30:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: You telling me???

All these credit rating agencies are a big joke in my opinion.

Greek PM: Two Deals But No Drachma Ahead

2012-01-16T17:08:00.002+08:00

Hoosier's note: If nobody wants Euro then who would want to own Drachma???

Euro Leaders Race to Salvage Rescue Plans

2012-01-16T10:22:00.000+08:00

Hard Times Generation: Families living in cars

2012-01-15T13:47:00.002+08:00

Elon Musk - Bloomberg Risk Takers

2012-01-15T13:03:00.004+08:00

Fed to Weigh Further Easing Amid Doubts About Recovery

2012-01-14T11:21:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: So, the US economic growth was 'on the right track' on Thursday (unemployment rate 'improved' to 8.5%) and NOT 'a ok' on Friday (the very next day)? Give me a break!

S&P Cuts Credit Ratings for Nine Euro Zone Nations

2012-01-14T10:59:00.000+08:00

France Downgraded by S&P, Losing Triple-A Status: Report

2012-01-14T00:11:00.002+08:00

What's Behind Spanish, Italian Bond Auctions' Success?

2012-01-13T14:21:00.000+08:00

Hedge Funds Try to Profit From Greece as Banks Face Losses

2012-01-12T19:38:00.002+08:00

RBS to Cut 3,500 Jobs as it Exits Mergers

2012-01-12T16:30:00.002+08:00

Jamie Dimon of Chase speaks in Seattle on Nov. 2, 2011

2012-01-12T10:28:00.001+08:00

Joe Wong at RTCA Dinner

2012-01-11T10:49:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #71

2012-01-11T10:04:00.000+08:00

I am just thinking aloud here.

US is printing more money, Europe is printing more money, and China, failing to engineer a soft landing, is also printing more money (by loosening credit availability). So, every-freaking-body is printing more money.

Everyone is kicking the can down the road. The private debts are being shifted to public debts and public debts are being converted into more public debts.

All these debt problems, which have led to a banking problem and, hence, causing an instability of the World Financial System, are difficult to resolve. One thing is sure, the end game is not going to be pretty.

I have been a Bear and I have not changed my stance. And, I am not alone. There are other Gurus like Kyle Bass, Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini, and etc and etc (except Warren Buffett, of course) sharing the same view; these Gurus are a zillion times smarter than me, and they cannot be that far off.

Reality is one thing, and market performance is another thing. Although I am bearish, but I am not going to fight the tape. There are only 2 things that can happen in the markets, Up and Down. So, if the markets are not coming Down, then they are going Up. I still want to Short, but since the markets still want to go up right now, I am going to wait.

So, when am I going to Short again?

I am trying to recall what has happened in 2008.

In 2008, the Dow hit a record high of 14,000. Then, as we all know, we had a Crash in 2008. But, before the Crash took place, the 14,000 level was tested at least once. So, I reckon that we may see the Dow testing the highs again. I have not checked the chart on the Dow, so I can't say at what levels I will start to Short the Dow again. I have recently cut loss on a relatively small Short position on the Dow and I am glad I did because the Dow kept going higher after I cut loss.

It is getting tougher to make money from the markets. I can see from the less frequent updates on the many popular financial blogs that many market participants, including the professionals, are increasingly being frustrated by the volatile and highly unpredictable market movements.

My view right now is, for the Bulls who still have profits, take profit on the way up. And, for the Bears, like me, be patient and wait for higher levels to Short.

The Chinese New Year is coming and I am a Chinese so I am going to relax and enjoy the Chinese New Year. The markets are always there, and I have told many people again and again that the markets will still be around after we are gone. So, the markets can wait or rather, we can wait...well, hope you get my point...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Let's enjoy the Chinese New Year holidays and start anew.

Euro Gains Before Merkel-Lagarde Meeting

2012-01-10T15:45:00.000+08:00

Merkozy Upbeat Despite Return of Euro Crisis

2012-01-10T12:47:00.002+08:00

Draghi May Copy Bernanke on Path to Low Rates

2012-01-09T17:30:00.000+08:00

Euro Zone Lost Investors' Trust: ECB Official

2012-01-07T12:50:00.000+08:00

Here We Go Again: US $25 Million Away From Debt Ceiling Breach

2012-01-06T10:42:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #70

2012-01-06T10:26:00.000+08:00

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till January 6, 2012 at about 10:17am.

What a change of fortune!

I was wrong about EUR/USD moving higher. EUR/USD broke below the 1.28 level last night during the European and US markets trading hours.

However, I also noticed that the other currencies like GBP and AUD also fell against the USD by a similar magnitude. So, it is the strengthening of the USD rather then the weakening of the EUR specifically.

It is also surprising to find that the European stock markets such as the FTSE, CAC and DAX did not fall sharply which would have been expected given the weak EUR.

I am beginning to see in various forums that people are calling for a Buy on EUR/USD at the current levels.

Meryl Streep - Iron Lady (movie)

2012-01-05T11:00:00.000+08:00

Meryl Streep is one of my favorite actresses...

Hoosier's Random Thought #69

2012-01-05T09:56:00.002+08:00

I have noticed that there are fewer updates on the blogs that I visit frequently. The reason is clear...people are just getting real tired about the markets.

I have said before, there were no follow-through either way, up or down. So, it has become increasingly hard to trade, not to talk about investing.

How to survive in this kind of markets?

One word...PATIENCE.

And, Buy Low, Sell High. Wait to Buy around the Support and Sell around the Resistance.

One more thing, Cash Management. Don't over commit and don't over trade.

The markets are going to be much more volatile in 2012 compared to 2011.

I am trading with just a small capital and I am preserving my huge capital for the big one...the Crash--which I am still expecting to happen in 2012. My prediction of a bottom in March 2012 is most probably wrong, but we can never tell, can we?

Further note: If a trade is not there, don't force it...don't force yourself to make that trade. One does not need to trade every freaking day or every freaking minute!!!!!

Hoosier's Random Thought #68

2012-01-04T17:53:00.001+08:00

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till January 4, 2011 at about 5:49pm.

I think there is still upside for EUR/USD and it may test the 1.32 level.

I still prefer to LONG EUR/USD and I will start Shorting the Dow once the EUR/USD hits the 1.32 level.

Greece has threatened to leave the Eurozone. In my view, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone, it would be a POSITIVE for Euro simply because there is one less* weak nation to be bailed out in the Eurozone.

*English lesson: 'one fewer' or 'one less'.

US Closes 2011 With Record $15.22 Trillion In Debt, Officially At 100.3% Debt/GDP, $14 Billion From Breaching Debt Ceiling

2012-01-04T10:05:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: The US Debt Ceiling issue will come back to haunt the markets.

CAPITALAND LIMITED (Capitaland) #24 (Stock Code: CATL.SI)

2012-01-02T12:48:00.002+08:00

Capitaland Daily chart updated till December 30, 2011.

Dear Dr T,

I have set a S$2 price target in the early part of 2011 and that was when Capitaland was still trading above S$3.30!

I said at a forum that I would only buy Capitaland when it hits S$2. Of course, at that time, I was laughed at and being ridiculed; after-all, who on earth would believe that Capitaland would hit S$2 when it was still trading above S$3.30? And, most people were thinking that Capitaland will rise above S$4 or even S$5; it was CHEAP--according to the majority of the people.

Apparently, there was only one person who would say "Buy at S$2!!", and that person was yours truly, i.e. Hoosier or me!!!!

But, now, those people who laughed at me are not laughing anymore, I believe...HAHAHAHAHA. More and more people now believe that S$2 is a 'distinct possibility'.

Well, today, I am going to scare the hell out of these people again.

I would NOT buy Capitaland at S$2.

I would only buy Capitaland when it hits S$1.70 and lower.

The reason? Simple. Just look at the chart that I have just posted.

The share price is STILL trading below the 3 moving averages and the 3 moving averages are still turning down.

And, look closely, I have drawn a solid RED resistance line. Captialand will NOT break above this RED resistance for a long, long, long time to come.

Yours truly,
Hoosier

YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD (YZJ) #05 (Stock Code: YAZG.SI)

2012-01-02T12:07:00.000+08:00

YZJ Daily chart updated till December 30, 2011.

Dear Dr T,

I have been telling people that, when a stock fell sharply below the 3 moving averages, it would take a LONG TIME for that stock to bounce back. And, the reason is VERY SIMPLE, it is just SIMPLE MATHEMATICS.

As seen from the chart, I have circled the trading range for YZJ for the period from late 2008 to early 2009. Here we have a similar pattern as what we are witnessing now. The price has fallen sharply below the 3 moving averages and the share price will trade sideways for the last traded price to 'catch up' with the moving averages.

Once the 3 moving averages have closed up, then and only then will we see the share price starting to move higher. At a particular point, we will see the shorter-term moving averages cutting above the longer-term moving averages and it is also at this point that we will see a sharp rebound of the share price.

As far as YZJ is concerned, the 3 moving averages have yet to close up and hence I expect YZJ to continue to trade sideways. It is really that simple, it is just SIMPLE MATHEMATICS.

Yours truly,
Hoosier

EU Officials Begin New Year With Calls to Save the Euro

2012-01-02T11:50:00.002+08:00

Friday Humor: Unspinning The "€100 Bill" Or How The European Bailout REALLY 'Works'

2011-12-31T16:37:00.000+08:00

This joke was posted on the ZeroHedge. There are 2 parts to it, I like the 1st part.

It is a slow day in a little Greek village. The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the village, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. The owner gives him some keys and, as soon as the visitor has walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the €100 note and runs down the street to repay his debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel. The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his drinks bill at the taverna. The publican slips the money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer him "services" on credit. The hooker then rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill to the hotel owner with the €100 note. The hotel proprietor then places the €100 note back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the €100 note, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole village is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more optimism. And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, is how the bailout package works.

Congratulations, Doug Kass! You Totally Nailed It

2011-12-31T16:03:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: I am going to follow him closely.

Bear Market #9

2011-12-31T12:46:00.000+08:00

HSI Monthly chart updated till December 30, 2011.

STI Monthly chart updated till December 30, 2011.

DJIA Monthly chart updated till December 30, 2011.

S&P 500 Monthly chart updated till December 30, 2011.

Dear Dr T,

So, we have come to the end of 2011. An extremely volatile year and the level of volatility is likely to continue, and most probably intensify, as we enter the year 2012.

I have said in the past that we will see the market, the S&P in particular, rebounding for the months of November and December 2011. And, we did.

It is widely believed that if the markets perform badly for the 1st month of the year, i.e. January, then the markets are likely to end the year badly. So, let's see how the markets perform for the month of January 2012.

Today is the last day of the year 2011, and I am not going to say much. I am in the mood to usher in the new year 2012; in fact, I have been in a festive mood since about one week before Christmas.

I would like to wish you and everyone who is reading my blog a prosperous and healthy new year 2012!!

Yours sincerely,
Hoosier

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) #27

2011-12-31T12:21:00.002+08:00

DJIA Daily chart updated till December 30, 2011.

Dear Dr T,

On December 23, 2011, I said that I was going to add to my Shorts on the Dow.

On December 27, 2011, the Dow did close above the most recent high of 12,284 by a tiny bit when I said it won't. But, so what? It just gave me a chance to short higher, that's all.

I am Shorting the Dow for trading. And, I have already taken profit when the Dow fell by over 130 points the very next day, on December 28, 2011.

The MACD is at the top and the Stochastic has turned down. As such, I still favor the Shorts.

Yours truly,
Hoosier

Workers strike at LG Display's Nanjing plant

2011-12-30T10:53:00.000+08:00

Related story: LG Display China Strike Ends as Fresh Labor Protest Reported

Hoosier's note: Clearly, it is no longer cheap to produce in China.

Italy Short-Term Costs Halve at Auction

2011-12-28T20:00:00.002+08:00

Rosenberg, Ryding, Zandi, Arbess, Zuckermann And Rickards All Chime In On The Future Of The Eurozone

2011-12-28T09:48:00.000+08:00

Shanghai stocks slide further in downbeat Asia

2011-12-27T17:10:00.002+08:00

...33-month low.

Philipp Bagus and Alasdair Macleod on Europe, inflation, and gold

2011-12-27T16:20:00.000+08:00

...In this video Philipp Bagus, Assistant professor of Economics at Madrid’s Universidad Rey Juan Carlos and author of The Tragedy of the Euro, and Alasdair Macleod of the GoldMoney Foundation talk about the eurozone facing the problem that is characterised in the “tragedy of the commons” analogy. Bagus explains this phenomenon by way of an example of overfished and over-exploited oceans due to a lack of property rights on oceans. In Europe, governments run larger deficits than their “competitors” in order to externalise the costs to all users of the currency. Knowing these incentives, the Stability and Growth Pact was put in place as per the early 1990s Maastricht Treaty, capping budget deficits at 3% of GDP and the debt to GDP level at 60%. However there was no enforcement of these rules which is why there have already been more than 80 infringements to this stability pact without any repercussions.

Six Pack Shortcuts, The FASTEST Way To Get Six Pack Abs

2011-12-27T13:10:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: This is a simple but fantastic workout. I have tried it, and I love it.

Trader Talk With Art Cashin #22

2011-12-26T17:04:00.003+08:00

Boehner surrenders in tax showdown

2011-12-23T11:58:00.000+08:00

Story: Boehner surrenders in tax showdown

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) #26

2011-12-23T10:19:00.001+08:00

DJIA Daily chart updated till December 22, 2011.

Dear Dr T,

On December 16, 2011, I said,

"I will slowly add to my Shorts on the Dow. The most ideal level to Short the Dow, in my opinion, is to wait for the Dow to test the Resistance line which would be around the 12,200 level."

As seen from the chart posted, the Dow is trading near the red resistance line. The Dow may still have some room to move higher but I am adding to my Shorts slowly as the Stochastic is now on the high side.

I have also indicated the 'most recent high' on the chart and that would be 12,284 on the Dow. I don't expect the Dow to trade above, or rather, close above this 'most recent high'.

Here is an IMPORTANT NOTE that I like to share.

We have to watch how the Dow performs in the 1st month of the year, i.e., January 2012. If the Dow starts off badly in January 2012, then, as indicated by past history, the Dow will perform badly by the end of the year.

Yours truly,
Hoosier

Hoosier's Random Thought #67

2011-12-22T10:54:00.002+08:00

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till December 22, 2011 at about 10:48am.

Previously, I said that we may see a rebound on the EUR/USD pair.

Yesterday, the EUR/USD traded to a high of 1.31970 and almost hit the 20-day moving average.

EUR/USD is extremely volatile and fortunes can be made or lost overnight.

Europe Banks May Flock to ECB’s ‘Free Money’

2011-12-21T17:02:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: The stability of the banking system and the survive of the Euro is an issue separate from the Sovereign Debt Crisis. If Euro were to disappear, the outcome would be 'unthinkable'...that's why I dare to go LONG on EUR/USD when it fell sharply recently; the EUR/USD has reclaimed the 1.315 level as I am writing right now.

Fed Releases The New Bank Rules Everyone's Been Freaking Out About

2011-12-21T11:37:00.002+08:00

Hopes for Crisis Relief Ride on ECB Loans to Banks

2011-12-20T19:30:00.002+08:00

Eurozone pledges €150 billion to IMF

2011-12-20T12:13:00.002+08:00

...The contributions are based on an existing IMF quota system. Among the 17 euro area nations, Germany and France contribute nearly half of the €150 billion. Italy, which is potentially the main beneficiary of the new funds, will chip in over €23 billion.

Hoosier's note: This is so silly...

Hoosier's Random Thought #66

2011-12-20T09:38:00.001+08:00

BAC broke below US$5!

House GOP Leaders Want New Payroll Tax Cut Bill

2011-12-19T09:26:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #65

2011-12-18T17:59:00.002+08:00

EUR/USD in a down channel. There is real possibility of a rebound given that the Stochastic is at the bottom and is turning up.

Senate passes payroll tax cut, spending bill

2011-12-18T11:38:00.002+08:00

France’s AAA Outlook Cut; Fitch Reviews Others

2011-12-17T16:34:00.000+08:00

Net EUR Short Position Soars To All Time Record, Implies "Fair Value" Of EURUSD Below 1.20, Or Epic Short Squeeze

2011-12-17T13:03:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: I have been following ZeroHedge closely. The last time when ZeroHedge mentioned about extremely high number of EUR Short positions, I saw a 'Short Squeeze' on EUR/USD. Hopefully, this happens again for I intend to go LONG on EUR/USD.

Congress Gets Failing Marks on Economy

2011-12-17T12:48:00.000+08:00

Hoosier's note: Basically, there is nothing much the Fed can do to revive the US economy.

Divided lawmakers muster modest tax deal

2011-12-17T12:45:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: With the 2012 Presidential Election approaching, we will continue to see a fight between the Democrats and the Republicans.

Hoosier's Random Thought #64

2011-12-17T12:41:00.002+08:00

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till December 17, 2011.

The EUR/USD continues to move higher and the Stochastic is also turning up. The MACD has also stopped falling and looks like making a turn to the upside too.

I expect that the EUR/USD will continue to move higher to test the 10- and 20-day moving averages currently at around 1.315 and 1.325 respectively.

I am going to continue to open my trading positions on EUR/USD with a LONG.

Hoosier's Random Thought #63

2011-12-17T12:10:00.002+08:00

Important Note:

I have noticed a change in the relationship between the movements of the USD, EUR, and the Equity Markets.

For the past few months, when the EUR strengthens (and the USD weakens), the European and US equity markets will move higher.

I suspect there is a change in this relationship. I believe that, from now onward, when the EUR is strengthened (and the USD is weakened), we will see the Equity Markets moving LOWER.

This is just my own suspicion.

I have always thought that, when the US needs funding, the USD is pushed higher--to force people to pay more for the USD, and the US Treasuries and Stocks are also pushed higher. Once the money has been 'sucked in', the USD will be pushed lower, and the US Treasuries and Stocks will also be pushed lower...so that those 'suckers' who bought into the US Markets (Treasuries and Stocks) will lose money.

I have said this in the past, the US is manipulating the foreign exchange and the capital markets to make money from the rest of the world.

This could be a prelude to a Crash!

Hoosier's Random Thought #62

2011-12-17T11:29:00.002+08:00

I have removed some items on the Sidebar to make the page look neater.

To look for postings related to the individual stocks, just click on the name of the stock under 'Labels'.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) #26

2011-12-16T20:06:00.001+08:00

DJIA Daily chart updated till December 16, 2011 at about 7:57pm.

Dear Dr T,

I am having a problem using the old version of charting tool.

The Daily chart shows the Stochastic at the bottom and, as such, I expect the Dow to move higher from here--although the MACD is turning down.

I will slowly add to my Shorts on the Dow. The most ideal level to Short the Dow, in my opinion, is to wait for the Dow to test the Resistance line which would be around the 12,200 level.

Yours truly,
Hoosier

Europe Rescue Fund to Remove Clause on Euro Breakup

2011-12-16T19:44:00.003+08:00

Hoosier's note: Earlier, there was a report that there will be a clause warning investors that the Euro could simply become worthless (which is such a stupid idea that only an Idiot could think of), and now they are saying that there won't be such a clause????

This clearly shows that the European Debt Crisis is so overwhelming that stupid ideas from these 'idiots' will just keep propping up.

Even a layman like me also know that the it would be too costly to abandon the Euro.

What could they think of next????????????????????

Hoosier's Random Thought #61

2011-12-16T18:27:00.002+08:00

Yesterday, I said that I went LONG on the HSI.

To be more precise, I favour going LONG on the HSI, i.e., I would open my position on the HSI with a LONG.

Today, the HSI closed higher by 258 points. At one point during the day, I believed the HSI gained by more than 300 points.

I just want to say that, when a stock, a currency, a commodity or the stock index, has fallen substantially, there will be a rebound; likewise, if the price has gone up too much, there will to be a correction.

EFSF Considers Euro Warning Clause

2011-12-16T18:08:00.003+08:00

...A draft prospectus prepared for the latest euro zone bail-out instruments includes explicit warnings to investors that the euro could break apart or even cease to be a “lawful currency” entirely.

Hoosier's note: Cease to be a “lawful currency” entirely??? This is heavy stuff.

Hoosier's Random Thought #60

2011-12-16T12:05:00.000+08:00

From my trading experience,

1. Study the charts carefully, start with the Daily chart.

2. Buy Low, Sell High.
--An idiot would also be able to understand this simple trading rule. But, it is not easy to put it into practice. When the price come crashing down, what do you do? I would buy. In fact, I look forward to the price breaking below the various support levels. And, I will watch the Technical Indicators and BUY. One pre-condition, don't panic when the price come crashing down.

3. Manage your CASH and your margin carefully. Don't ever ever over-trade.

4. Observe and Learn.

5. Test the market and don't be over-confident.

6. The true test of an outstanding trader is NOT how much money he or she makes, but, how to get out of a losing position.

7. BE PATIENT!

I have repeated all these trading rules many times. I have put them into practice and they work..wonderfully and profitably.

Fitch Downgrades Several US, European Banks

2011-12-16T09:00:00.003+08:00

Gold Sheds 'Can't Lose' Status: Now, No One Wants It

2011-12-16T08:57:00.001+08:00

Morgan Stanley to Cut 1,600 Jobs in 2012

2011-12-16T08:55:00.002+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #59

2011-12-15T16:00:00.003+08:00

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till December 15, 2011 at about 3:52pm.

Yesterday, EUR/USD continued to fall and broke the 1.295 level.

Today, we finally saw a rebound and EUR/USD is now trading above the 1.30 level as I am writing right now.

I covered most of my Shorts on the Dow last night and, this morning, I went Long on the HSI as I feel that the HSI has fallen to a level where a rebound is to be expected. When I say I am Long on HSI, that means I will open my position on HSI with a Long and I am just trading and not keeping it for the long-term.

When EUR/USD broke below the 1.30 and then the 1.295 levels, market commentators begin to talk about the 1.20 level and the fear in the market is so prevalent that it is as if the Euro is going to disappear tomorrow. This leads me to believe that the Euro will rebound soon (given that the Stochastic is on the low side). Furthermore, I noticed that, last night, the US$ strengthened against most currencies, so, the fall on the Euro is not specifically related to the European Debt problem. I suspect it is a flight to 'quality', i.e. the US$ which is the lesser of the 2 evils...HAHAHAHAHAHA.

The cost of abandoning the Euro is just too high. And, on the flip side of the coin, when the Euro is weakened, that implies that the US$ is strengthened. I don't think the US wants to see a strong US$; hence, I expect the Euro to rebound further, possibly back to the 1.315/1.32 levels.

China December Flash PMI at 49; Factory Output Shrinks

2011-12-15T11:20:00.001+08:00

Fed Repeats Rate Pledge, Hints More Easing Possible

2011-12-14T12:08:00.003+08:00

Most Economists Expect Another Global Recession

2011-12-14T11:42:00.002+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #58

2011-12-14T09:55:00.001+08:00

EUR/USD Daily chart updated till December 14, 2011 9:47am.

The EUR/USD fell further and hit 1.30 last night.

As seen from the Daily chart, the Stochastic is now at the bottom.

I am going Long on EUR/USD. To be more precise, I prefer to open my position with a Long.

My trading on EUR/USD is done in minutes, and, sometimes, in seconds. And, I am hedging my Long on EUR/USD with a Short on the Dow. It is not a 1:1 hedge, but a 8:1 hedge; that is, if I have 1 Long contract on the EUR/USD, I would have 8 Short contracts on the Dow. This is a new trading strategy that I am trying out. Don't ask me why 8:1, I just feel like doing it...HAHAHAHA.

There was a comment last night on why the EUR/USD was so weak, especially last night. Not only because of the comment by Merkel, but, there was an auction of US$21 billion of US Treasury Bill. Funds have been flowing out of EUR and went into the USD. US$ is now the 'Real Daddy' of all safe-havens...HAHAHAHAHA.

foreXlive is a great site for fx traders. I highly recommend this site.

EU Banks Selling ‘Crown Jewels’ for Cash

2011-12-13T19:40:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: I am Long EUR/USD at the moment as it has fallen quite sharply. More importantly, however, I think, the EUR/USD 'will not be allowed' to collapse at the moment. The EUR/USD will not collapse so as to give the banks more time to raise capital...just a personal view.

Hoosier's Random Thought #57

2011-12-13T11:58:00.000+08:00

Yesterday, I went Long on the EUR/USD.

It was a volatile session last night, and, I made a mistake.

I was Long EUR/USD and when it fell further, I tried to add to my Long positions. However, in a hurry, I clicked the 'Sell' button instead of the 'Buy' button. The end result is, I accidentally 'closed' my earlier Long positions which resulted in a loss.

I guess there is always a First for everything...HAHAHAHA. So, I had my first Loss trading the EUR/USD; it's no problem at all for I had expected this (a loss trading the EUR/USD) to happen.

However, I continued to Long this morning and I have recovered my loss, suffered last night, when EUR/USD rebounded.

Hoosier's Random Thought #56

2011-12-13T11:51:00.000+08:00

Last Saturday, December 10, 2011, I said that I was going to Short the indices (Dow and HSI).

"Although I am a Steadfast Bear, but I am happy to see the markets moving higher, for now. I will be able to continue to Short the indices at higher levels and I am sure that I am going to make a lot of money out of Shorting the markets."

The reason I gave, for Shorting the indices, was that the Stochastic on the charts was on the high side and was about to turn down.

Yesterday, the HSI and the Dow both fell (I am having a problem posting the charts). I have forgotten how many points the HSI fell yesterday, but it continued to fall into the night during the hours when the US and European markets were trading. However, I know that the Dow fell by over 160 points last night.

So, to recap, it would be right to initiate a Short when the Stochastic is HIGH.

OECD Warns of Developed World Funding Crisis

2011-12-12T09:42:00.002+08:00

Worries grow over IMF loans to Europe

2011-12-11T18:52:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #55

2011-12-11T18:32:00.001+08:00

I said on December 10, 2011, I said,

"There are two things that need to be done--spending cut and improved earnings, i.e., increased taxes from higher economic growth.

The Developed World will carry out austerity measures to cut its spending. The G in the GDP equation will be much reduced,

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

I wonder how are they, the Developed World, able to spur economic growth with a big cut in Government Spending."

The 2 sides to the coin are, Spending Cut and Increasing Taxes--for those indebted nations to reduce their debt burden.

To me, it is a given that the Spending Cut by the governments (i.e. reducing G) will lead to slashing of headcounts, and hence, higher unemployment.

Higher unemployment means the C (Consumer Spending) will also be lowered.

When C is lowered, businesses will make less and this will imply that Tax Revenues for the governments will also not improve.

This is a vicious cycles. The GDP will JUST HAVE TO come down.

When the GDP is down so will the Stock Market.

If HSI and the Dow were to move higher from here, I will Short more.

I am too lazy to post the charts here, but, the Stochastic on the indices are high and is about to turn down.

Further note:

Oh...I forgot to add.

When C is down, demand for goods and services will be down. There will be overcapacity and business investments will also be hit...hence, the I (Investment) will also disappears.

I think I have said all these before.

http://hoosierdome.blogspot.com/2011/08/hoosiers-random-thought-16_13.html

Swiss, Germans Set To Unleash Capital Controls As European Companies Prepare For Euro End

2011-12-11T14:20:00.001+08:00

...“How do you control an explosion in a controlled way?” Fiat SpA (F) Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne told reporters in Brussels on Dec. 2. “That’s a contradiction in terms. This will be an implosion of some size with potentially disastrous consequences." He is right, and while the outcome is certain, it will not stop Europe's financial leader Germany from intervening in an attempt to prevent a surge in Deutsche Marks once the currency returns, and will likely set up capital control measures - that last bastion to every failing monetary system - to halt what is sure to be a record inflow of post-collapse DEM appreciating capital.

Related story: Eurozone banking system on the edge of collapse

Corzine: I don't KNOW

2011-12-10T19:11:00.001+08:00

Europe debt saga far from over

2011-12-10T17:46:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's Random Thought #54

2011-12-10T16:39:00.001+08:00

It's a tough tough market. There was no follow through either way. On Thursday, Dow was down about 200 points and yesterday, it almost fully recovered what it has lost the day earlier.

It's the same old story with the European Debt Crisis. Summit after summit and nothing implementable has come out to resolve the debt crisis. And yet, the European markets and the US markets gained on 'renewed optimisim' that somehow, the politicians are going to get it right ultimately.

But, the underlying problems remain. The Developed World of the West will need to cut down its debts somehow. There are two things that need to be done--spending cut and improved earnings, i.e., increased taxes from higher economic growth.

The Developed World will carry out austerity measures to cut its spending. The G in the GDP equation will be much reduced,

GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

I wonder how are they, the Developed World, able to spur economic growth with a big cut in Government Spending. And, I don't see how the equity markets can continue to move higher.

I have said from the beginning, when I commented that we are entering a Bear Market, that the markets (specifically, the S&P) will try to fight back,

"If the event in 2008 does play out again in 2011, we may see the markets trying to rebound until 'an event' like the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, to cause a massive panic sell-off in the markets."

http://hoosierdome.blogspot.com/search/label/Bear%20Market

Once again, we are seeing Headlines like this,

Week Ahead: Markets Turn Their Focus to the U.S.

...After being whipped around for weeks by developments in Europe, markets may turn their attention to the U.S. and what appears to be an improving economy, for now.

In my opinion, I think this is just another 'trap' to bring suckers into the markets.

Although I am a Steadfast Bear, but I am happy to see the markets moving higher, for now. I will be able to continue to Short the indices at higher levels and I am sure that I am going to make a lot of money out of Shorting the markets.

EU Leaders Drop Demands for Investor Write-Offs in Bailouts

2011-12-09T19:24:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: Trying hard to please the investors and markets.

British Prime Minister Says UK Will Never Join Euro

2011-12-09T17:47:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: European Union...this is truly some kind of 'union'...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Europe summit fails to reach full agreement

2011-12-09T17:04:00.001+08:00

EU Leaders Agree Fiscal Pact, Falter on Treaty Change

2011-12-09T13:47:00.001+08:00

MF Global's Corzine: I did not intend to break rules

2011-12-09T09:35:00.001+08:00

Hoosier's note: Sure, Mr Corzine, I 'believe' you.